Poker Writer
The World Series of Poker main event final table is set, with the remaining nine players each holding a valuable position, everlasting glory within reach. For the first time since 2016, the final table now has a break (about three weeks this time) before commencing on Aug. 3, giving players an opportunity to increase the value of their stacks.
In the November Nine era from 2008-2016, players would often go get coaching and sponsorships to increase their chances of winning and visibility. The one-day break from 2017 to 2025 limited these opportunities. But now, with a three-week break, such opportunities have returned.
Keep Reading
How Much is a Final Table Stack Worth?
PokerStrategy broke down the exact Independent Chip Model (ICM) monetary value of each stack heading into the final table. Each player has a stack worth at least $2 million, according to those calculations.
The WSOP does not allow deals, but in a fictitious scenario where ICM chops were allowed, most positions have a higher ICM value than the actual corresponding payout, except for first place and second place. The third-place payout slightly exceeds the third-place ICM value, but it’s very close.
| Rank | Player | Chip Count | Big Blinds | Payout at final table finish | ICM Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Jumalon | 194,000,000 | 129 | $10,000,000 | $6,186,584.34 |
| 2 | Rami Hammoud | 79,000,000 | 53 | $6,000,000 | $4,070,124.56 |
| 3 | Jamie Shaevel | 56,000,000 | 37 | $3,750,000 | $3,401,562.36 |
| 4 | Greg Mueller | 48,500,000 | 32 | $2,750,000 | $3,163,115.85 |
| 5 | Michael Gagliano | 46,500,000 | 31 | $2,250,000 | $3,113,323.72 |
| 6 | Mario Boos | 44,000,000 | 29 | $1,750,000 | $3,011,427.78 |
| 7 | Lauri Sääskilahti | 37,500,000 | 25 | $1,500,000 | $2,797,500.26 |
| 8 | Han Feng | 25,000,000 | 17 | $1,250,000 | $2,319,542.91 |
| 9 | Evagoras Evagorou | 22,500,000 | 15 | $1,000,000 | $2,186,818.20 |
ICM Value Strategy in the WSOP Main Event
The ICM value is much higher for everyone from fourth through ninth in chips. So, each of them would likely be in favor of a theoretical deal.
For the bigger stacks — Lucas Jumalon, Rami Hammoud, and Jamie Shaevel — the question would be one of balancing certain life-changing money versus the opportunity to maximize equity.
Hammoud has some distance between him and the third stack, but is still significantly behind the chip leader Jumalon. Hammoud could be costing himself $2 million by taking a deal and securing the $4.07 million ICM value. He is not so far in front of the field that one bad hand wouldn’t send him back into the fray with the other stacks. But, he could also lean on the shorter stacks and move himself closer to Jumalon to become a more commanding second-place stack.
Shaevel is in third place, but not by very much. One lost hand, and he could drop down as far as seventh with the middle stacks so bunched up together. He would likely snap your hand off with a deal that would give him $3.4 million right now.
For the short stacks, the ICM deal is definitely a good option, but some may have higher aspirations. Just one double up, and they can start dreaming of as high as third place, which would be much greater than their current ICM value. Even the shortest stack, Evagoras Evagorou, has 15 big blinds, which is not terribly short. He also showed heart at the 10-handed final table, showing no desire to simply ladder up when he called off his stack in the big blind with king-seven to risk finishing in 10th while the tiny stack of Malcolm Trayner still loomed.
Chip Leader’s Position Less Clear
For the overwhelming chip leader Jumalon, a theoretical deal would actually be a tough decision. He is the favorite to finish first and win the $10 million, holding 35% of the chips in play and having well over double the second stack. However, his current ICM chop value of $6.18 million is greater than even the second-place money of $6 million. So he would have to win it all to win more. Anything could happen at a final table, especially during heads-up play.
Jumalon has such a chip lead that it would require a disaster for him to finish outside at least the top three, so it may be worth the risk for him to play it out and go for the eight-figure number.
Unspoken Deals Before Play Begins
Of course, all of this discussion is largely hypothetical.
These players cannot officially take deals. What they win, they must sign for tax purposes, which can become complicated under different state and country tax laws. But with the three-week break, it only opens the door to more deal-like discussions between the players. There is nothing stopping them from making deals behind the scenes.
At the same time, the longer time period may also reduce the peer pressure to agree to a deal in just one day, as in previous years. Getting nine players with varying chip counts and varying motivations to agree to one deal is very hard, making it less likely that there will be some type of agreement before Aug. 3.
Photo credit: Alicia Skillman / WSOP
