Author: Joss Wood

Any feelings of schadenfreude the regulated industry felt when Americas Cardroom got hit by Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS attacks) at the beginning of last week have completely evaporated as the weekend saw new attacks on PartyPoker and PokerStars.

Industry observers might feel that an offshore poker room that continues to serve the US market in defiance of state law can be expected to get hit by ransom demanding hackers.

Any players that have taken the risk of playing there shouldn’t complain if their game is interrupted, but when it comes to the law-abiding sites such as PartyPoker and PokerStars it’s an altogether more serious situation.

The current wave of outages began on Sunday, Aug. 5 with an attack that saw Americas Cardroom’s flagship MOSS tournament series’ first event cancelled:

Then on Aug.what 9 and 10, PartyPoker got hit:

PartyPoker put out a statement acknowledging that the interruption to play was caused by a DDoS attack.

Tom Waters, PartyPoker Managing Director apologized:

“The unfortunate events of 9 August were understandably frustrating for our players. After consideration, the decision was taken to pause and then subsequently cancel all affected tournaments.

Our team worked hard to try to resolve the key issues. As poker players ourselves, we fully understand how frustrating it can be when an online poker room suffers technical issues, and we fully appreciate the considerable patience and understanding shown by our players in light of these difficulties.“

Finally, on Aug. 12, with a second set of attacks on Aug. 13 it was PokerStars’ turn:

Tournament cancellations always cause some unfairness

Highlighting the difficulty online poker rooms face in responding fairly to DDoS attacks, PokerStars’ response didn’t meet with universal approval.

It took PokerStars a couple of hours to react to the attack by pausing and cancelling its tournaments. They then credited the affected players with an amount equal to their equity in the tournament when it was paused:

Online poker rooms are in a catch-22 position with whatever method they use to reimburse players, because some will always be disadvantaged.

In advance of the tournament being paused some players will be affected by disconnection problems, and it is extremely difficult if not impossible to compensate them for what might have happened. In the events of the last two days, some players complained that the disruption caused them to blind out before the tournament was paused, entitling them to no recompense.

PokerStars has a flexible cancellation policy

PokerStars cancellation policy sets out three methods of compensating players depending on the reason why a tournament has been cancelled.

• Option 1: Rollback—Acts as if the tournament never happened; “ if you were registered for the tournament, you get your buy-in and fees (including rebuys, add-ons, and knockout entry if any) refunded. Also, the buy-in is refunded in exactly the same format with which you bought in. For instance, if you bought into a tournament using T$10 and $15 cash, then you would get back T$10 and $15 cash.”
• Option 2: Roll Forward (no players are in the money)—“we refund each remaining player his tournament fee (and knockout bounty if appropriate), and then divide up the prize pool based on the following formula:
  • 50% of the award pool is distributed evenly among all remaining players
  • 50% of the award pool is distributed proportionally according to the chip count”
• Option 3: Roll Forward (players are in the money)—“ we refund each remaining player his tournament fee (and knockout bounty if appropriate), and then divide up the prize pool based on the following formula:
  • Each player receives the minimum prize not yet awarded at the time of cancellation
  • The remainder of the award pool distributed is distributed proportionally according to the chip count

On top of this, PokerStars looks at the individual circumstances of the cancellation and exercises its own discretion if it feels the policy has resulted in unfairness, and it will be doing the same in this case:

DDoS attacks are not a new problem

It is difficult to see what more poker rooms can do after the fact. What is perhaps more worrying is that the poker sites remain open to this type of attack. It is not as if it hasn’t happened before.

In April, 2015 several sites including PokerStars , Betfair , Unibet and Tonybet suffered downtime that appeared to be the result of similar attacks.

Then in July 2015 the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enfocement (DGE) launched a criminal investigation after attacks on the state’s regulated casinos. DGE Director David Rebuck said:

“At least four casinos were impacted and experienced downtime. The attack was followed by the threat of a more powerful and sustained attack.”

Rebuck explained that the motive for the attacks was financial with the hackers demanding a ransom to be paid in Bitcoin otherwise the disruption would continue.

Since then, it has been in the self-interest of the industry for poker rooms to jack-up their security levels, and this they have done.

However, this war is an arms race. Whenever the operators introduce more protection, the hackers develop more powerful weapons. The best defense may be deterrence; to take the pain and decide as an industry to never, ever pay the hackers off.

UPDATE August 6: PokerStars has given Unfold a permanent place in the poker client. The game was planned to take its turn in a rotation of similar innovations, but now the poker room has decided that Unfold will be popular enough to justify more than a temporary promotion. 

The latest in a series of game innovations at PokerStars was added to the poker client today. “Unfold” tweaks the traditional No Limit Hold’em cash game by giving players the option to unfold their hand after seeing the flop.

How Unfold works

The game changes work as follows:

• At the beginning of the hand each player pays an ante into a separate Unfold pot. The ante is a fixed percentage of the big blind.
• When the flop has been dealt players who have folded have the option to unfold their hand by making a bet equal to the size of the Unfold pot.
• Players who unfold do not take any further part in the betting.
• At the end of the pot, the unfold pot is awarded to the Unfold player with the strongest five card poker hand after the river is dealt.
• If the hand ends before the river, the remaining streets are dealt to determine the winner of the Unfold pot.

There are three circumstances where the Unfold antes are returned to all players. If:

• The main pot is decided pre-flop
• Fewer than two players fold pre-flop
• No players choose to Unfold

The game has been released for players at PokerStars sites in the .COM, .NET .UK, .EU and .DK markets with more promised, so, for example, New Jersey players might also get access to the new game.

In the incarnation of the game at the PokerStars.dk site in Denmark, the game is played at an eight seat table with a minimum of four players in each hand needed to trigger the unfold option.

The size of the ante varies according to the stakes. At the $0.01/0.02 stake level, the ante is 100 percent percent of the small blind. At the $0.25/$0.50 tables, the ante has been set at $0.15, 60 percent of the small blind. Notably, PokerStars does not take rake from the Unfold pot.

Players don’t get the option to table select, instead PokerStars is using its “Seat Me” option where players choose the stake they want to play at and are randomly seated at the first available table.

There’s no short-stacking available in the new game. Players must buy-in for between 60 and 80 big blinds.

How does Unfold change strategy?

The most obvious impact of the new game is that players get a second chance to win a pot. The size of that pot will depend on how many players are sat at the table and therefore contribute an ante, and how many players decide to Unfold their hand.

If only one player decides to Unfold, then that player will automatically win the Unfold pot.

The game neatly targets player psychology. Every poker player has experienced the angst of folding an apparently weak hand and then seen a flop which turns their worthless cards into a monster.

Unfold relieves that feeling of regret, and allows players to get back into the action with the chance to win a small pot. Of course if several players choose to unfold that small pot can become more meaningful.

Even when players choose to unfold on the flop, turn and river cards have still to be dealt which adds an element of chance to the outcome.

An apparently powerful flopped flush can easily turn into a losing hand if the board pairs and another player who has unfolded shows down with a full house.

Aggressive players will begin to unfold a higher percentage of their hands which aren’t “made” on the flop, but which have a good potential for improving when the last two community cards are dealt.

Position remains critical with players in later-to-act seats able to take advantage of the Unfold option knowing how many players have either exercised the option or let it pass.

Players who love doing poker math will get to calculate their expected value and begin to define what hand ranges are most profitable to unfold.

Will PokerStars Unfold take off?

Put the different aspects together, and the new game looks like it will appeal to both recreational players who will enjoy winning some money with a previously folded hand, and the more studious players who will be able to gain a small edge by developing a winning strategy.

On the downside, the game inevitably means that hands where the Unfold pot is in play will take a little longer. The industry trend has been to speed up games, not slow them down, so this will be a factor in the game’s success.

The fact that a player who chooses the unfold option isn’t guaranteed to win since the luck element remains, means that the decision to unfold or not is not necessarily automatic.

In game design theory this makes Unfold much more interesting and more likely to be popular. It is the mix of skill and luck which defines poker as a “mind sport” and that makes the game so attractive to such a large audience.

Players who can judge that it will be profitable to unfold with relatively weak hands, such as middle pair will enjoy plaudits for their prescience and judgment when they win.

When recreational players see other players win with weaker hands, they may well increase their use of the unfold option. While they will be relying more on luck than judgment, the positive effect when the decision leads to a win is one of the psychological factors which encourages them to keep playing.

Even though Unfold leaves the primary game unchanged, the option to give players a second chance looks to be a winner. It adds a dimension to the game that many players will enjoy.

The latest in a line of innovative online poker variants from PokerStars looks like it will be called “Unfold.”

Details on how Unfold will work are scanty, but as it says on the box, it looks like the game will give players an option to unfold their hand at some point in the action.

The existence of the new game was alluded to in a PokerStars tweet early on Monday morning

A few hours later, the PokerStars blog announced the retirement of Showtime Hold’em from the cash game lobby, concluding with another enigmatic hint:

“But, as one game steps down, the crew of poker remixologists at PokerStars finish cooking up something new to add to the rotation. No comment for now, but we reserve the right to reverse that statement – or Unfold it, if you will – very soon.”

And then kudos to Pokerfuse, it did some digging and was able to make some educated guesses about how the new game will work.

Variations on a theme

The previous new games that PokerStars has released in this way have all taken the basic game of Texas Hold’em and added a minor tweak to make things more interesting.

The simple tweak that created Showtime was to leave all folded cards face up for the duration of the hand.

At the time, Dan Price, PokerStars ring games manager explained:

“Will conservative players be forced to loosen up to avoid being labelled as nits? Will aggressive players still be able to represent strong hands with multiple cards exposed? Will you keep bluffing the opponent folding big hands… until they catch on?”

So with Unfold, the tweak should be in giving a player who has folded the option to get back into the hand.

Based on a look at the images and file names, Pokerfuse speculates that the new game will add an extra street which will be an “Unfold round.” Exactly when the extra round will appear, whether it will be available in every hand or be randomly allocated is unknown.

What price the option to unfold?

The option to be able to unfold after seeing the flop or any other street, is an incredibly valuable advantage. That’s the sort of option valuation that investment bankers struggle over even with some pretty advanced math tools.

It will be interesting to see how PokerStars handles the quid pro quo—for surely players won’t just be given the option for free. There may be a cash payment required to be allowed to unfold, or perhaps some handicap is imposed such as restricting the possible winnings to bets taken after the hand is unfolded.

The uncertainty and bluffing that makes poker such a fascinating game looks to be preserved with the unfold option.

Players will quickly work out that in order to maximize their value, they will have to mix in bluffs as well as made hands when deciding to unfold. There should be a game theoretical solution to how often a player should unfold as a bluff.

More innovations on the way

One of the advantages that online poker has over live poker is that operators can use technology to change the game in ways which would be impossible in a live game.

Perhaps the two biggest game innovations brought to market by the poker operators have been fast fold games and lottery style sit and go tournaments.

Fast fold games automatically move a player to a new table and new hand as soon as he folds a hand. A physical impossibility in a casino.

Games like the PokerStars Spin & Go offer random prize pools with games lasting only a few minutes. They work because the statistics work for large volumes of games.

Both poker variants have made the operators substantial profits. More importantly, they have served to introduce poker to a broader audience that doesn’t have the patience to sit through several hours of a traditional online multi-table tournament.

PokerStars is actively looking to find the next blockbuster poker game that will have real mass appeal.

PokerStars Director of Poker Innovation and Operation, Severin Rasset explained:

“The common goal of these innovations is [to] continue to maintain a high level of engagement from our active players, to reactivate players that may be tired of playing poker as it is today, and to speak to potential players that haven’t discovered the game yet.”.

VIP Changes promised investment in innovation

When PokerStars revamped its VIP program a couple of years ago, high volume regular players lost a lot of value when benefits were refocused towards recreational players.

At the time, PokerStars explained that part of the savings would be spent on game innovation. That didn’t look like much compensation to players who were making their living from playing online poker.

However, those same regular players should now be benefiting from their ability to work out profitable strategies that give them an early advantage in the new variants that PokerStars is putting out.

Unfold is coming soon, but a full launch will probably have to wait for the next rotation of the cash game offer. Showtime Hold’em retires today, Fusion will probably replace it, with Unfold following after that.