Poker Writer
Gemini Predictions, the Winklevoss twins’ contribution to the prediction market industry, will soon launch a new style of sports event contracts known as “time interval prop bets”.
The company’s self-certification filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was posted on X by gaming attorney Daniel Wallach on Monday.
The new style of contracts does not yet appear to be available on the platform, but Gemini stated that they are coming soon.
What is a Time Interval Prop Bet?
The new contracts will be bets on the number of points scored during a specific time window that’s part of a larger sporting event. In other words, they will be akin to over-under bets, but only for a portion of the game, rather than the entire thing.
Gemini is coding the contracts as “SPORTSTOTAL1” and its filing specifies that their phrasing will fit the following template:
Will the {points} recorded in {time period} of {event} be {above/below/exactly/at least/between} {count} points?
The time intervals could be anything from the first or second half down to a specific minute of play. As with other event contracts, participants will buy binary Yes or No shares on the proposition.
For example, “Will the points recorded in the 1st quarter of Atlantic Hawks v. Boston Celtics on January 28 be at least 30?”, or “Will the goals scored by Manchester United between 80:00-90:00 of Saturday’s match be at least one?”
The filing mentions the NFL, MLB and NHL by name, but makes clear that Gemini intends to offer similar contracts on other sports and leagues. As examples of the types of scoring the contracts might include, it lists: points, goals, runs, total game, total sets, strokes, score relative par, and laps — again, without limitation.
The potential language for timing is also flexible: “A given time period denoted in hours and/or minutes and/or seconds of pure matchplay, or constrained by a given time in a stated timezone (e.g., prior to to 7 PM EDT).”
High-Frequency Betting is Popular But Risky
Mainstream sportsbooks have accustomed American bettors to high-frequency, in-game betting options. Critics of these so-called “micro-betting” markets say they produce an experience more like casino gambling and put users at greater risk of harm.
Moreover, recent scandals in the NBA and college basketball have called attention to the integrity risk such bets also pose.
However, the spot-fixing accusations relate to bets on individual athletes, while for now it appears Gemini is focusing on team totals. Still, bets on small time intervals are easier to rig than full game outcomes. The narrower the contracts become, the greater their susceptibility to manipulation.
An extreme example of corruption in micro-betting occurred when sportsbooks allowed bets on individual pitches in MLB games. Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were found to have intentionally thrown balls on pitches that showed a suspicious volume of betting on that outcome.
Similar opportunities exist in almost any sport. Even limiting interval bets to the overall score won’t help in the case of individual sports. For instance, a tennis player could intentionally throw one game or even one set against a weaker opponent and still go on to win the match.
