Managing Editor
As Virginia inches closer to legalizing online casinos and poker, the National Association Against iGaming (NAAiG) has produced poll results purporting to show that 66% of voters oppose the idea, while only 17% support it. On the other hand, voters a few states away in Massachusetts are 59% in favor and 24% against, if you believe numbers coming from Beacon Research.
Massachusetts is considerably more liberal than Virginia, but is there really such a huge difference in public opinion? And if so, why is Virginia so much closer to passing an iGaming bill than Massachusetts?
It’s unlikely, in my view, that there is actually much of a difference of opinion between the two states. To the extent that there is, it may be the result of Virginia having only recently opened its first retail casinos. There is often a temporary rise in negative opinion in the aftermath of one new gambling option appearing, which can make it harder to pass any further bills.
What’s actually going on is that almost none of the polling that’s done about gambling in the U.S. seeks to produce an accurate picture. In most cases, as here, the polls are conducted by for-profit companies at the behest of parties who are paying for data that will advance their cause. Indeed, a separate Massachusetts poll conducted by an anti-gambling group produced results much more like those NAAiG found in Virginia.
That’s not to say that the polls are falsified, but that the answers people give to questions often depend on who is asking the question and how. Not only is it not difficult to create a poll that will bias the answers, it’s actually much easier to do so than to design one that won’t.
NAAiG Poll Triple-Prompts to Maximize Opposition
It’s obviously enough what NAAiG’s goal is — it’s right there in the organization’s name. It’s a non-profit advocacy group whose membership consists largely of retail gambling interests. Some of the most prominent members, like Cordish Companies and Churchill Downs, actually set out to offer online gambling themselves. They just weren’t any good at it, and now want to avoid having to compete with other companies that are doing well in that space.
Kudos to NAAiG for being transparent about the poll itself, however. It was commissioned from Lake Research Partners, which made the script available as well as the answers.
It provides a pretty clear illustration of how this works, asking respondents more or less the same question three times, but with escalating pressure to answer a certain way:
- “What is your opinion of iGaming?”
- “Would you support or oppose the legalization of online casino gambling, sometimes referred to as iGaming or iGambling, in Virginia?”
- “Now I am going to tell you a little more information about iGaming. Also known as “iGambling,” and “internet gambling,” iGaming would allow 24-hour gambling access to slot machines and casino table games from wherever you are on your phone or mobile devices. iGaming is currently not legal in Virginia, but there is an effort underway to legalize iGaming in the state. Sometimes over the course of a survey like this, people change their minds. Would you support or oppose the legalization of online casino gambling, sometimes referred to as iGaming or iGambling, in Virginia?”
What Difference Does a ‘B’ Make?
Note, firstly, the shift in nomenclature from the commonly-used “iGaming” to “iGambling.”
In business and in politics, the presence of absence of the B typically goes hand-in-hand with legal status. It’s gambling when it’s currently illegal — as the survey also emphasizes in the final question – and gaming when it’s regulated.
The final version of the question plants the idea that iGaming will lead to people gambling around the clock (something that already happens in the retail environment) and not-so-subtly suggests to the respondent that they can and perhaps should change their mind.
Beacon Poll Emphasizes Illegal Gambling as the Alternative
Beacon released its poll results itself, without mentioning the client. However, according to Sports Betting Dime, the study was commissioned by the Sports Betting Alliance (SBA), which consists of the “Big Three” iGaming companies (BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel), plus Fanatics and Bet365.
For this study, the full script isn’t available, but the text for the main question is:
There is currently a proposal in Massachusetts that would end the monopoly that unregulated offshore casinos have on iGaming by creating a secure, legal iGaming marketplace, subjected to state taxes and oversight. Would you support or oppose Massachusetts legalizing iGaming under a state–regulated system?
Note the entirely different framing. Here, the emphasis is on stamping out the unregulated industry, establishing oversight, and imposing taxes.
Put another way, these surveys are effectively asking respondents two entirely different questions:
- “Are you in favor of people in your state gambling on the phones 24/7?”
- “Do you think casinos should be regulated, supervised, and taxed?”
Obviously, when you put it that way, people will give different answers.
So what do Americans actually think about online gambling? What would they say if you presented them with the full argument for and against?
There are few, if any, polls trying to get that answer. We might only truly find out if and when a state like Maryland passes an iGaming bill — that is, one whose constitution requires a referendum. If the various sports betting referendums over the years have been any indication, the split is much closer to 50/50 than either of these polls imply.
