WSOP Paradise Promotion Creates Reverse ICM on the Main Event Bubble

The Reef hotel at the Atlantic Casino Resort in the Bahamas.
Skyler Ewing via Petapixel

The World Series of Poker has announced dates for this year’s WSOP Paradise, but invited controversy with a last-minute promotion that created strategic distortions on the money bubble of the Main Event.

WSOP timed its announcement to come just hours before the start of play on Day 4 this Wednesday. Play had ended on Day 3, just a few eliminations short of players entering the money.

Accompanying the WSOP Paradise schedule was the revelation that the last player eliminated before the money in the Main Event would receive a $30,000 package to the Paradise Super Main Event, which features a $25,000 buy-in and $60 million guarantee.

The package includes $5,000 in travel and accommodations, plus the honor of being the first player officially registered for the $25,000 Super Main Event in December.

Traditionally, the Main Event “bubble boy” (or girl) receives a free $10,000 entry to the following year’s Main Event as a consolation prize. Offering triple value unexpectedly might have pleased some players, but others were critical of the strategic implications.

Bubble Boy Promotion More Valuable Than Cashing

When WSOP revealed the promotion, the Main Event field was only 15 eliminations away from money at the start of Day 4. What it meant was that 1,462nd place was suddenly worth $30,000, double the min-cash of $15,000.

Meanwhile, a player who made the money would have to survive over 800 more eliminations and finish at least 602nd to match the value of the bubble prize.

That creates entirely different strategic considerations than a $10,000 consolation package. The usual prize would soften the blow of missing a $15,000 cash prize, but it doesn’t create an incentive to bubble.

This promotion created an interesting dynamic, reversing the usual ICM considerations on the bubble. Despite the short notice, that aspect of the promotion did not go unnoticed. Players discussed it in person and on social media while the bubble played out. Because bubble play is hand-for-hand, it tends to drag on, allowing time for such conversations.

Most players were not actively trying to bust out. Although the $30,000 was worth more than the next 800 spots in the payout structure, tournaments concentrate most of the money in their final tables. Every Main Event player dreams of the $10 million top prize and wouldn’t surrender that chance so easily.

Still, a short-stacked player would typically want to wait until after the bubble bursts before trying to double up. The incentives in this case were quite the opposite.

Three Players Busted Out Simultaneously

Trying to bust out on the exact bubble proved to be a risky strategy, however. The hand that ultimately brought players into the money included nine all-ins, with three leading to eliminations.

That meant that three players had busted on the bubble, but only one could receive the promotional prize while the others would have to settle for min-cashes.WSOP Vice President Jack Effel escorted Matthew Frankland, Marco Dickner, and Sachin Joshil to an empty table where they were dealt a single hand to decide things. Frankland, a British high roller, won the “flip” and the WSOP Paradise Super Main Event package.

Promotion May Have Influenced Huge Bubble Hero Call

The enhanced reward for the bubble may have affected more than just preflop all-in decisions. Social media was buzzing about a huge river call made by Josh Reichard, one of the top WSOP Circuit ring winners.

Some of those criticizing WSOP’s promotion claimed it was hypocritical in light of how the series treated Jesse Yaginuma and James Carroll after they appeared to coordinate Yaginuma’s Millionaire Maker win so he could claim a $1 million promotion from Club WPT.

Reichard was, ironically enough, the third-place finisher in the Millionaire Maker just before that controversy came to a head.

Now, he was calling a 25 big blind river bet with Ace high for his tournament life, with another strategy-distorting promotion hovering in the background.

Typically, players are hesitant to call for all their chips on a tournament bubble. The difference between busting out immediately and surviving another few hands can be huge. But when a promotion reverses those considerations, calls like Reichard’s could be tempting.

By the same token, the correct strategy for deep stacks on the bubble is to bully the short stacks who can’t call without huge hands. Reichard’s opponent, Thi Xoa Nguyen, may have been counting on that when bluffing with Nine High.

The WSOP was strict with the Millionaire Maker winners on the alleged chip dumping that occurred heads-up. Although it allowed them to split the prize money, WSOP denied Yaginuma his bracelet, and it’s rumored that both men were banned from future WSOP events. Their supporters argue that no other players were harmed by any potential heads-up deal. Conversely, some might argue that this bubble dynamic altered play more dramatically and to some players’ detriment, especially since it was only announced at the last moment.

WSOP Paradise Schedule

The announcement also included a preliminary schedule for WSOP Paradise. The second WSOP series of the year will be held from December 4-18 at the Atlantis Paradise Island resort in the Bahamas. That venue was, for many years, the home of the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure. 

PokerStars discontinued the PCA in 2019. WSOP Paradise began a few years later, in 2023. This year will be the third installment of the new series.

The Super Main Event will offer the highest guaranteed prize pool in live poker history. It adds $10 million to last year’s $50 million guarantee to make it $60 million for 2025.

The Main Event currently underway has a $94 million prize pool, and that’s only the third-largest in series history. However, like most other WSOP events, it doesn’t have a guaranteed minimum.

GGPoker ambassador and WSOP legend Daniel Negreanu promoted the WSOP Paradise schedule by saying:

I said last year that a $50M guarantee for the Super Main Event was crazy – adding another $10,000,000 on top is freaking insane! WSOP is bringing the biggest high rollers and the best poker experience possible back to Paradise, and I cannot wait to be part of it.

Poker Writer

Jeffrey is an Expert Sports and Poker Writer with poker being his specific scope for the better part of five years. He has worked in various capacities at the biggest poker events in the world, WSOP, EPT, local tournaments and more. He has worked with PokerNews, Poker.Org, 888poker and the WSOP itself through the years. Jeff is also a fervent follower of many sports, professional, collegiate and international, with a particular interest in tennis. He received a Master's in Sports Management from the University of the Incarnate Word (UIW) and a Bachelors in the same field from Clemson University.