Contributor
Time Magazine is upping the ante this year with its annual “Person of the Year” award. Among the top contenders on prediction sites (such as Kalshi and Polymarket) are my fellow Chicagoan Pope Leo XIV and artificial intelligence (AI).
Should AI take the cake? It wouldn’t be the first time a concept, group, or representation of an idea won.
AI Leads The Field
At the time of writing, Polymarket has Artificial Intelligence leading the pack with a 28% chance of becoming Person of the Year. Pope Leo XIV trails close behind at 26%.
Other contenders are a bit farther behind. Two-time winner Donald Trump (2016 and 2024) sits at 9%. Benjamin Netanyahu (6%), Elon Musk (4%), and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (4%) round out the top six.
Kalshi’s field and percentages differ slightly. AI and Pope Leo retain the top two spots at 32% and 24%.
But then comes a new player, Sam Altman, at 13%. The OpenAI CEO’s appearance may provide further confidence to those who think an AI-related person or concept will win. After Altman comes Trump (10%), ChatGPT (9%), and Musk (6%). Musk’s xAI also makes him an AI-adjacent party in the race.
Market Dynamics Could Raise The Stakes
Combined, the Person of the Year prediction markets at Kalshi and Polymarket have done almost $4 million in trading volume.
Those looking to place prediction bets may find opportunities for arbitrage. However, keep in mind the volatility of such markets and the fees charged.
For example, a $1 buy for AI to win the Person of the Year distinction at Polymarket returns $3.33 the time of writing. Eventually, it’s possible a “No” prediction at Kalshi or elsewhere would yield a net win via arbitrage.
Of course, because each site charges fees for participating in its markets, it’s hard to get to the point where “free money” becomes available.
These markets can change fast. My speculation? Look for AI to surge in the next couple of weeks. The rapid proliferation of AI and Language Learning Models (LLMs) leads to a lot of press coverage. Meanwhile, this Pope has proven to be relatively low-key in terms of news-making power. He may fall in the markets as official selection day approaches.
The ‘Person’ Of The Year Isn’t Always A Person
It might feel odd to see AI on the list at first, but it turns out there’s plenty of precedent for its appearance on the list of contenders. Time has long stretched the definition of person, often including social movements and cultural touchstones.
In 2014, “Ebola Fighters” took the title as the virus spread through West Africa. The 2017 honor went to the #MeToo movement, represented by the millions of people who broke their silence about sexual assault. Most recently, 2022 honored “The Spirit of Ukraine” alongside the country’s president, the aforementioned Zelenskyy.
In 2023 and 2024, we saw the respective reigns of Taylor Swift (thanks to the Eras tour) and Trump for winning the presidency as Time reverted to the norm.
This year, we could see another zag with the field flooded by AI contenders.
Lots Of Game Left
The Person of the Year race is just beginning. Time traditionally reveals its official selection in December via an exclusive TODAY Show broadcast. A few months can make a load of difference.
Will Chicago’s Pope suddenly start making waves? Will AI developments solidify the industry’s lead? Or will wild-card Trump do something dramatic to raise the bet for himself?
Keep an eye on those prediction odds from Kalshi and Polymarket for the latest developments, and play responsibly.
