Poker Writer
The Kalshi odds on whether President Trump will release any of the Epstein Files surged in the last few days as scores of Epstein’s victims traveled to Washington, D.C., to attend a rally. The survivors of sexual abuse are urging lawmakers to pass the Epstein Files Accountability Act, which would compel Attorney General Pam Bondi to publish all unclassified information about the case.
The release of the Epstein Files has been a hot-button topic for the Trump administration since the start. Long promised to be released, little information has actually made its way into the public.
Chance of Release Spikes Following Steady Decline
The Kalshi odds on a release were at 60% at the end of July. Odds steadily declined into the 30-50% range in August, depending on the timeline specified. There are markets for a variety of benchmarks, such as December 2026, etc.
The files became increasingly removed from the daily news cycle as the administration shifted its focus to other topics.
But, they returned to the news in a big way after the Labor Day weekend. The odds suddenly spiked from about 37% to 73% in the span of four hours on Tuesday.
This spike followed the news that Epstein victims would speak in Washington on Wednesday. Logic dictates this would pile even more pressure on Washington to release the files. Pressure came from both sides of the political aisle, with both Democrats and Republicans calling for their release.
Democrat Ro Khanna of California and Republican Thomas Massie of Kentucky requested that the Department of Justice (DOJ) release the files. Khanna said to Fox News Digital that “people are going to be outraged” after hearing from the victims.
What Would Resolve the Market to a Yes?
The specific rules of the Kalshi question “Will Trump release the Epstein Files?” lay out how it would be resolved as a “yes.” The rules on Kalshi state:
The documents must discuss Epstein in connection with the associate, rather than simply be about them — e.g. releasing a document about Bill Gates’ charitable foundation would not resolve the market to Yes, even if they were connected. The Payout Criterion requires “previously unreleased” documents. These must contain novel material not previously available to the public. Documents that are merely re-released, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify.
There are five different markets in play with different timelines, ranging from January 2026 to December 2026. The spread between the shortest and longest timeline is currently about 10 percentage points.
There was some initial confusion from some of the bettors because shortly after the victims’ testimony there were files released. Some believed the market should resolve as yes.
But, the release did not satisfy the requirements of the rules. Many of the documents were already in the public domain. They were released by the oversight committee and not by the Trump administration which is what is required for a yes.
As one Kalshi commenter put it in response to those asking for a payout:
Since some of you are having problems understanding: the DOJ giving documents to the House Oversight Committee is not a “release”. A release is the process of making something public. An intergovernmental transfer of documents subject to confidentiality restrictions is not a release.
In the day following the testimony, the odds for the longest timeline — before December 2026 — have regressed back to just under 50%.
More detailed, fresher information must hit the public before this market settles as a yes. Given the split in Capitol Hill over the idea of a release, this fight figures to drag into at least the coming months, hence the earliest available market being based on the end of this calendar year.
