Kalshi Bettors: Gov. Shutdown Expected to Last Over a Week

Odds for a government shutdown continue to increase, and Kalshi bettors expect one to last more than a week. Just a day away from the Oct. 1 deadline for a shutdown, the Kalshi odds of that happening have increased to 86%.

After the odds were in the 60-70% range last week, they have only increased since. The Trump administration and opposing Democrats have yet to reach a deal. An impasse appears imminent.

Thus, Kalshi has added another market: “How many days will the federal government be shut down this year?” The options include:

More than five days – currently at 64%
More than 10 days – currently at 41%
More than 35 days – currently at 17%

The majority of bettors are predicting a shutdown lasting between five and 10 days. The aggregate average of the bets predicts a shutdown of 8.4 days, but it is changing rapidly by the hour. By the time of writing, the peak occurred at 6 p.m. on Monday (9.8 days) and has tapered down slightly since then.

A possible shutdown appears to be nearly unavoidable in the hours leading to the deadline. Neither side is willing to budge. CNN reporter Manu Raju summed it up in simple terms:

First shutdown in more than six years set to take place at midnight. That one lasted 35 days, the longest in history.

The Senate GOP plan: Keep voting on the seven-week stop-gap, day after day until Senate Dems relent.

So far, Dems are mostly united.

How long will it last?

The 35-day milestone refers to the last U.S. federal government that stretched from December 2018 to January 2019. That 35-day shutdown during Trump’s first four-year term was the longest in American history.

Government shutdowns are a relatively new phenomenon in U.S. history. There were a few of them in the 1980s, none lasting more than one day. The first significant one was 21 days during Bill Clinton’s presidency, from 1995 to 1996.