Poker Writer
The 2026 World Series of Poker main event final table begins with Lucas Jumalon as the big chip leader. Historically, that has been a good indicator of success, but how likely is he to actually win the $10 million prize?
The final table will air on ESPN from Aug. 3-5. To prepare for the final table, PokerScout took a look at how likely it is that the chip leader will ultimately close it out.
The runaway leader to start the final table, Jumalon hails from Spokane, Washington. The 22-year-old could become the second-youngest champion ever, only after Joe Cada in 2009, just barely ahead of Peter Eastgate in 2008.
Jumalon will hold 35% of the chips in play, mirroring previous main events in which one player had a large chip lead at the start of the final table. In fact, Jumalon has the largest lead in recent memory.
How Often Does the Big Chip Leader Win?
Looking back at main event final tables over the past 10 years, there are a few examples of a chip leader having a significant advantage at the start of play.
| Year | Player | % of chips at start of final table | Finishing Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Jordan Griff | 23% | 2nd |
| 2023 | Adam Walton | 23% | 3rd |
| 2021 | Koray Aldemir | 34% | 1st |
| 2019 | Hossein Ensan | 34% | 1st |
| 2015 | Joe McKeehen | 33% | 1st |
Having a massive stack pretty much ensures a player of at least a top-three finish. No big chip leader has failed to finish in the top three since Phillip Hilm’s blowup in 2007 from chip leader to first out the door in ninth place.
Koray Aldemir, Hossein Ensan, and Joe McKeehen provide recent examples of players who went coast-to-coast as chip leaders at the final table. Scott Blumstein in 2017 started the final table as chip leader, but it was not a huge chip lead, as John Hesp sat right behind him. In 2016, Qui Nguyen started as the second-largest stack but took the chip lead from Cliff Josephy on the very first hand of the final table with a pre-flop four-bet and never looked back from there.
In 2025, Michael Mizrachi was also the second-largest stack before a roller coaster final table, where he went up and down in chips. It ended with him ultimately winning it.
The 2022 Main Event did not have a big chip leader at the start, as the stacks were pretty evenly balanced with three or four players within striking distance of the lead.
The two recent big chip leaders who failed to close with a win were Jordan Griff and Adam Walton. Walton lost a lot of chips with aggressive play, while Griff was simply beaten in big pots on a few occasions.
Will Jumalon Close it Out?
Having 35% of the chips in play obviously gives Jumalon a big leg up. His closest competitor, Rami Hammoud, has less than half of his stack.
However, all it takes is some early run bad for things to get a lot more even. If Jumalon loses some all in flips against shorter stacks, his count will come tumbling down to the rest of the field. On the flip side, if he eliminates those players, he will gain an even larger advantage.
The chances of Jumalon making the top three are very high. It would require a significant mistake or a series of bad luck hands to put his finish outside of that range.
Whether or not he actually wins will depend entirely on how well he plays in the short-handed phase of the table and which players he faces three-handed or heads-up. While the chip lead is a massive advantage that any player would take, it is by no means a guarantee of victory, especially considering his inexperience.
Photo credit: Tyler Abrams / WSOP
