Poker Writer
Predictions markets think there’s a better than even chance that federal lawmakers will repeal the wildly unpopular changes made to gambling taxes by the recently-passed. One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Even Republicans who voted for the bill said they were surprised to learn of those provisions, which were added to the Senate version of the bill partway through the process.
That made the Fourth of July holiday was not-so-sweet for gamblers in the US. The section of the bill related to gambling taxes imposed a deductions limit of 90% of gross losses. That would make break-even gamblers into losers at tax time and put some professional gamblers out of work.
Rep. Dina Titus and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto are spearheading efforts to repeal that clause in their respective chambers of the legislature. Unfortunately, Republicans have delayed the process, attempting to use the clause as a bargaining chip to demand changes of their own.
Now, prediction markets are offering contracts on whether the gambling language will be repealed before the end of the year, which is when it would otherwise take effect.
Share prices were volatile in the early going. However, Polymarket and Kalshi propositions have both stabilized at around 60% Yes as of this writing.
Differences Between Kalshi and Polymarket Contracts
The bill’s passage was itself no sure thing, with all Democrats and several Republicans opposing it.
Kalshi and Polymarket have both posed phrase the short version of their proposition as “Cap on gambling reduction losses repealed this year?”
However, they differ in their specifics. Polymarket’s detailed definition of the rules is as follows:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 “Big Beautiful Bill” is fully repealed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
Kalshi’s rules are briefer and more generous, resolving to Yes if a bill passes that modifies the provisions in any way.
Kalshi and Polymarket users don’t seem to think a modification without outright repeal is likely. Only three percentage points separate the two lines—57% with Polymarket’s stricter rules, and 60% with Kalshi’s more generous ones. Polymarket’s odds maxed out at 61% this morning, while Kalshi’s went as high as 68% last night.
The difference between the two used to be larger. The low point for Kalshi’s was 40%, while Polymarket was as low as 22% for a week from July 11 through July 18.
Rep. Titus Calls Attention to the Markets
The spike in price for Yes shares may be due to attention brought to the contracts by Rep. Titus herself, in a post on X. That’s somewhat ironic, as she points out that as well as trying to repeal the gambling tax change, she’s been trying to have Kalshi and Polymarket shut down.
You know the FAIR BET Act has made it when two prediction markets I am trying to shut down are offering odds on its passage. pic.twitter.com/Z5KkkcdChY
— Dina Titus (@repdinatitus) July 21, 2025
Titus’s effort to repeal the problematic deductions limit is called the FAIR BET Act.
My FAIR BET Act would rightfully restore the full deduction for losses so gamblers don’t pay taxes on money they haven’t won.
There are enough problems with the law as written that it’s likely to be amended or repealed eventually. However, this has been a chaotic legislative session, so the time crunch to get a bill through before the end of 2025 may be the key to this question. With Congress going on recess after this week and until September, there will be only four months for the FAIR BET Act or its Senate equivalent to make any headway.
As one commenter on Kalshi put it:
This is not changing by 2026, put simply lol.
