Deputy Editor
Prediction contract provider Kalshi has rocketed past its rivals and posted record numbers this September, thanks in large part to expanding and marketing its NFL offerings.
In a press release dated Sept. 17, Kalshi announced it had crossed the $1 billion mark in monthly volume despite the month being barely halfway over. Kalshi also proclaimed that it now accounts for 62.2% of global volume in the prediction space. According to the company, that’s roughly a 20-fold increase after it was at 3.1% a year ago.
“It’s remarkable to see how fast Kalshi is growing,” Kashi CEO Tarek Mansour said. “We’ve been heads down focusing on building a product we love, and we let the score take care of itself. This result is a testament to how good the team at Kalshi is.”
Kalshi Riding NFL Wave
The key to Kalshi’s success has been riding the wave of NFL markets. Kalshi made headlines in August by expanding its sports offerings, branching out into more football contracts, including granular ones like player props.
According to data collected and shared by industry observer Dustin Gouker on X, sports prediction markets accounted for 85% of Kalshi’s trading volume over the past week. Nine of the top 10 markets by volume were sports:
- Six NFL games (Dolphins/Bills, Bucs/Texans, Chargers/Raiders, Falcons/Vikings, Giants/Cowboys, Chiefs/Eagles)
- Two NCAA football games (Georgia/Tennessee, Clemson/Georgia Tech)
- One boxing match (Canelo vs. Crawford)
Kalshi hinted at the dynamic in the presser, stating that Sunday, Sept. 14 set a company record for total trades at 588,520. That number surpassed even Election Day 2024.
All of this comes at a time when Kalshi has taken on multiple states on the legal front. Even as the company insists in court it isn’t a sportsbook, it has run nation-wide advertising campaigns trumpeting itself as a legal NFL betting option. Legal opinions and results have varied, with the most significant setback coming in a Maryland court.
Kalshi’s marketing spend hasn’t been limited to “legal NFL betting,” either. It recently signed Daniel Negreanu, possibly the most famous poker player alive, as an ambassador. Negreanu’s reach in the poker community has helped GGPoker become the market leader in the online space.
Polymarket Entering Ring Soon?
Kalshi will hope its early lead counts for something soon, as rival Polymarket gets set to return to offering its product to U.S. customers. Polymarket received clearance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which governs the prediction market space, to return after three years of catering only to international customers.
“Polymarket is coming home,” reads a page titled “U.S.A. waitlist” on the company’s site, which encourages users to register their phone numbers in order to receive an alert on the day in question.
According to data collected by The Block, Kalshi’s pace of roughly $2 billion in volume would far surpass anything Polymarket has done since the election caused trading to hit a fever pitch. January was Polymarket’s best month in 2025 at $1.26 billion.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi received valuations in the billions earlier this week.
As prediction markets fight an assortment of state governments on the legal front, the battle for market share amongst themselves will soon intensify.
Image credit: Erin Costa/Flickr (license)
