Poker Writer
Tesla’s Robotaxi rollout in Texas hasn’t gone smoothly, and predictions market bettors are lowering their expectations for a full launch this year. The service began as a private test in the state capital of Austin this past weekend.
The self-driving taxis were seen veering into the wrong lane and exceeding the speed limits in the ten-car rollout. Many of them seemed to be glitchy as well.
This has seemingly dented confidence that these Robotaxis will be successfully launched in 2025. The Polymarket topic “Will Tesla launch Robotaxis in California in 2025” has dipped in its percentage chance in the last week, likely due to the unconvincing test rollout in Texas. The percentage has dropped from 36% to 23% in the previous few days. Confidence was highest in March, when it reached a high of 45%.
The videos of multiple mistakes, including one where a Robotaxi breaked on its own in the middle of the road with nothing in front of it, was a worrying sign to many. Autonomous-technology expert and Carnegie Mellon professor Phillip Koopman was one of the worried individuals:
This is awfully early to have a bunch of videos of erratic and poor driving. I was not expecting as many videos of problematic driving on the very first day.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk remains confident however, stating:
I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year.
Musk’s prediction will not help the Polymarket question though as it sets the deadline at the end of 2025 and not 2026 as Musk points toward.
Kalshi’s market is more optimistic, with a 72% chance of a “Tesla Robotaxi public release this year”. This would be a full public release, not just beta testing versions.
But even with the more optimistic numbers, they have still dipped in recent days, likely thanks to the problems in Austin. They have dropped from the high point of 86% two weeks ago to the 72% number that the Kalski market currently rests at.
