WSOP Main Event Final Table Predictions: Jumalon to Defeat Shaevel Heads Up

It is time to get out my crystal ball and make some predictions for the 2026 WSOP main event final table. The final table gets underway on Monday night and will run for three straight nights on ESPN and ESPN2. Here, I stick my neck out a bit and make some predictions about what will happen based on my knowledge of how previous main event final tables have played out.

I have watched every main event final table in its entirety since 2011, the first year that every hand was broadcast. I went back and watched the ones from 2011-2015 on YouTube, when ESPN replays were still available for free there.

The 2026 version will have a unique dynamic. Players will return after more than a two-week break. This is a longer break than in the 2017-2025 era, when it was just a day or two, but a shorter break than in the November Nine era from 2008-2016, when the final table would break for four months. What role, if any, the length of the break will play is yet to be determined.

Pressure on the Middling Stacks

Here’s how the stacks will be arrayed when the final nine take their seats:

Evaluating the seat draw is a key part of predicting how this will play out. Big chip leader Lucas Jumalon has a favorable seat draw. He can put pressure on the middling stacks, who will all have severe ICM pressure to ladder up and secure the big money jumps at the final table.

Seats 1-5 have the most pressure. They are all within 12 big blinds of one another and are neither the big stacks nor the short stacks. The range of finishes for these players is the widest. Therefore, they have the most variance in the amount of money they can win.

Each one of them will have Jumalon leaning on them, and none can damage the big stack that much unless they double up more than once.

Jamie Shaevel has the largest stacks of the middling ones. He also has position on each of the other middle stacks.

Bad Seat Draw For Hammoud

The second largest stack, Rami Hammoud, has an unfortunate seat draw. He has Jumalon to his left and will have to deal with him on most occasions, which will not allow him to bully any of the smaller stacks as much.

This could lead to his stack shrinking further down to the middling pack rather than gaining more to get closer to Jumalon.

Of course, if he can bust one of the other middling stacks, that would change. In that case, he’d control enough chips to make Jumalon tread a little more cautiously.

Predicted Order of Finish for 2026 WSOP Main Event

Based on how these final tables typically play out, here is my predicted order of finish:

1. Lucas Jumalon – $10 million
2. Jamie Shaevel – $6 million
3. Michael Gagliano – $3.75 million
4. Rami Hammoud – $2.75 million
5. Han Feng – $2.25 million
6. Greg Mueller – $1.75 million
7. Mario Boos – $1.5 million
8. Lauri Saaskilahti – $1.25 million
9. Evagoras Evagorou – $1 million

Jumalon Will Be Your 2026 Main Event Champion

• Jumalon’s big chip lead of 35% of the chips in play will prove too much to overcome. He will accumulate more chips early by applying pressure and extend his chip lead further at the start. He will hold the chip lead most of the table, if not the entire way. The real question is, will Jumalon make a big misstep at some point to give up his lead? I think his head start will prove too much to overcome.
• Cash game player Shaevel will use his good seat draw to gather chips and move himself away from the other middle stack. He will be the only one to rise close enough to challenge Jumalon and likely will win some big pots vs the chip leader as well at some point.
• Gagliano is one of the most accomplished and veteran players at the table. He will outplay some of the other middle stacks in important pots to move himself up the leaderboard. If he can take a big pot from Jumalon at some point, then he becomes a serious threat to win it.
• Hammoud’s bad seat draw will cause him to slide down the counts and put him closer to the middle pack than rise above it. With a reduced stack, he will lose some important hands to Gagliano or Shaevel to finish a bit lower than he would hope.
• Feng is one of the most technically skilled players at the table, but his short stack holds him back. He could very easily go out early as he tries to gain enough chips to climb up to be a threat. He will choose his spots wisely and keep his head above water long enough to outmaneuver those who are leaking chips. If he gets a couple of double-ups, watch out.
• Mueller is the most experienced player at the table by far, in years played. The 55-year-old Canadian has a tough seat between the other middle stacks. I expect him to spin his wheels a bit with some up and down straightforward poker before ultimately bowing out.
• Not everyone at the table can win pots. I think Boos and Saaskilahti are in the most vulnerable positions for losing chips early. Jumalon will pick them apart with preflop aggression, and the two Euro players will have their hands tied with shorter stacks still around. Eventually, I expect both to leak chips and go out without picking up much steam.
• Evagorou, the short-stack optician from Cyprus, already showed that he is not afraid to get his chips in. He called off his stack during 10-handed play when a much shorter stack was still around. He will look to get his 13 big blinds in early to try and double. And I think he will go own on his first attempt, likely within the first 10 hands of the night.

Bonus Predictions

• There will be at least one “viral hand” where a player makes a huge fold or bluff that gets the poker world talking.
• At least one massive cooler will greatly flip the table and change the entire perception of what is about to happen. That’s something I did not exactly account for in my predictions.
• A few instances of long tanks will cause more debate over the shot clocks. The WSOP announced they’ll take them out of play for the final table.