Tournament Turnouts Indicate US High Stakes Play in Jeopardy Thanks to Tax Change

It’s early in 2026, but every day without a repeal to the gambling tax deduction limit means poker players are a day closer to filing their taxes under the new system. Some may already be adjusting to the change by altering their spending behavior, and at least one — Hall of Famer Erik Seidel — has said he’s considering retiring from the game.

PokerScout investigated player turnout for the first few big events of 2026 for signs of such a shift.

Those early numbers suggest that the impact is likely to be largest in high buy-in events. The biggest fall in attendance yet seen was in the most expensive US tournament of the year so far, priced at $25,000. Events priced at $5,000 and $10,000 also attract a field heavy with professionals and may see an impact.

By contrast, lower-stakes events don’t appear affected yet, perhaps because casual players will feel the least impact from the tax change. Anyone with a negative ROI worse than -10% won’t owe any tax at all. Meanwhile, those who crush the low-stakes fields will only see a modest reduction of their winnings.

At high stakes, on the other hand, player edges are thin. The change in loss deduction from 100% to 90% is enough to turn any winning player with a single-digit ROI into a net loser after taxes. Even a 20% ROI winner would see their annual income slashed in half.

Year-On-Year Comparisons Show Drop at $25,000 Level

The first two big stateside poker festivals of 2026 were the Lucky Hearts Poker Open at Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood in Florida and the Borgata Winter Poker Open in New Jersey. Both festivals had main events at the $3,500 level.

PokerScout compared turnouts for each event to their 2024-25 predecessors, as well as 2025 events at the same properties with identical buy-in levels.

That yielded a small but interesting data set. Here’s a look at the Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood events. Entry numbers for the control sample are an average, rounded to the nearest whole.

Most events stayed roughly the same or even grew. However, the field for the $25,000 event was slashed almost in half. Note, however, that year-over-year comparisons are made tricky for this series because of changes to some events’ guarantees and structures.

Additionally, the 2026 LHPO was strengthened by renewed World Poker Tour branding and co-promotion. The LHPO ran as an unaffiliated event from 2023-2025, and examples like the L.A. Poker Classic have shown that losing or gaining WPT affiliation can significantly affect turnout.

And here’s how Borgata 2026 Winter Poker Open compared to the 2025 edition. Comparisons of side events are impossible as the 2024 WPO featured a different schedule, and other large Borgata festivals in 2025 had slightly differently priced main events.

There is less to see here. However, participation fell in Borgata’s main event despite a higher guarantee. The tournament organizers raised the main event guarantee from $2 million to $3 million for 2026 but ended up missing. The tournament didn’t overlay enough to lose money for the Borgata, but it ran with an effectively reduced rake. Factoring in the overlay, the prize pool amounted to $3,351 per entry, leaving $149 for the house, compared to a nominal $3,100+400 buy-in and tournament fee.

Stateside High-Roller Poker Tournaments May Be in Danger

Not only did the Lucky Hearts Poker Open $25,000 see reduced turnout, it was actually one of two that were originally on the schedule. The other was canceled entirely due to lack of interest.

It probably didn’t help that the tournament organizers had opted to run the first $25,000 without a guarantee. PokerScout understands from people close to the situation that this decision owed in part to worries of low turnout due to the tax change.

Past $25,000 events in the sample PokerScout examined at Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood generally had a $1 million guarantee. Removing the guarantee out of fear of a low turnout may have been a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, there is one historical exception that seems to refute that. There has been one other $25,000 event with no guarantee at same venue. It drew 50 entries, slightly lower than the average but still almost 80% more than this year’s.

Even the relatively unchanged turnout for the $10,000 event could be considered disappointing given that the involvement of WPT would ordinarily be expected to increase attendance.

The $5,000, meanwhile, slid by about 13%.

Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood, with its affluent base of Miami customers, has been one of the few properties to consistently run $25,000 events in the U.S. If it is struggling to get such tournaments off the ground during a WPT stop, that could be a negative sign for other high-stakes events yet to come in 2026.

On the other hand, lower-stakes poker appears likely to see little change. Large main events, which satellite in many players and offer sizable edges for pros, may also continue functioning as normal.

Tax Math Pushes Players to Lower Stakes

That high-stakes poker events would take the biggest hits is a predictable consequence of the way the gambling tax change is structured.

To see why, imagine the following two tournament professionals.

Player A: High-stakes winner with a 5% ROI, playing an average buy-in of $20,000.

Player B: Low-stakes crusher with 25% ROI, playing an average buy-in of $2,000.

Assume both players enter 100 tournaments in a calendar year.

Under the old tax system, Player A expects to profit $100,000 before taxes, and Player B profits $50,000. With both paying taxes at a roughly the same 30% rate, they net $70,000 and $35,000, respectively.

However, Player A is deducting something like $1.7 million in gross losses from their winnings, depending on their in-the-money rate. Player B is only deducting around $170,000.

Under the new tax system, Player A will owe taxes on $170,000 of phantom income. At 30%, that means $51,000, leaving this player with only $19,000 after tax — less than one buy-in at the stakes they play. Player B’s hit is only one-tenth as large, leaving them with $29,900.

This is a simplified example that doesn’t include innumerable factors such as state taxes, pieces bought and sold, cash game wins and losses, etc. But it’s clear that under the new tax environment, the rational response for winning poker players is to play lower stakes and aim for a higher ROI, sacrificing pre-tax net income in return for lower gross winnings and thus lower taxes.

Every poker player, regardless of buy-in level, will be rooting hard for a repeal of the unpopular change. However, early efforts there have failed.

Absent such a development, 2026 poker tournament turnouts may shift toward lower-stakes events. The early indications are that this may be exactly what’s happening.

Image credit: _BuBBy_/Wikimedia Commons (license)