Deputy Editor
An expert on gambling tax expects an eventual repeal of the One Big Beautiful Bill’s new gambling tax law. However, in an interview with PokerScout, he cautioned that the most likely outcome is that nothing changes in 2025.
“Long term, I’m very optimistic, but there’s a chance people have to plan for 2026 without knowing what the tax plan will be,” said Russell Fox, a federally licensed tax professional at Clayton Financial and Tax in Nevada. “Will it be eliminated eventually? Yes. This year? Probably not.”
The Trump administration’s OBBB included a provision that capped gambling loss deductions at 90%. That puts what many feel is an undue tax burden on gamblers, including professional poker players, effectively taxing them on money they never pocketed.
‘Best Case, This Year. Worst Case, Five Years’
Fox, who has specialized in the gambling sphere of taxation for 25 years, said he’s expecting as long as a five-year timeline on a possible repeal. He noted that “nobody really knows” what will happen or when, but his best guess is it happens sometime by 2030.
“Best case, this year,” he said. “Worst case, five years.”
Until then?
“It’s going to have a very bad impact on gaming,” he said. “It’s going to hurt a lot of people.”
Fox pegged the chances of a 2025 reversal around 25%. Publicly available prediction markets at Kalshi largely agree. While a 2025 repeal was priced as high as around 67% in early August, that number has steadily dropped to about 36% as of Wednesday afternoon.
Gambling Stakeholders Must Invest To Get Repeal Done
Current political animosity between Democrats and Republicans works against the possibility of a repeal. Additionally, Fox said gambling stakeholders will have to invest resources in order to make a repeal happen.
Entities such as casinos, the American Gaming Association, and sportsbooks will have to invest money in lobbying efforts. The “right legislator” will have to take up the cause.
Nevada Rep. Dina Titus has begun the fight with her FAIR BET Act. Opposition has already cropped up from a Mike Pence-led advocacy group.
Fox noted that gambling isn’t a partisan issue, though, and the possibility of a repeal depends on GOP support. Proponents of such a repeal will hope to attach it to must-pass legislation. Plenty such legislation will crop up not only in 2025, but in the coming years.
Eventually, he expects them to succeed, but it could be awhile.
“Nobody today knows how long the word eventually lasts,” he said.
Image credit: 401K (2012)/Flickr (license)
