Managing Editor
The US-Iran War is still expected to delay the opening of Wynn’s new resort in the United Arab Emirates, but not by as much as previously feared. During the company’s Q2 earnings call, CEO Craig Billings told investors that the company is now aiming for September 2027, coinciding with the start of the local tourist season.
That may be good news for globetrotting poker high rollers looking for a new place to ply their trade, as Macau isn’t what it used to be. Wynn was one of the Macau poker operators to discontinue dealing games there, though its casino operations are still going strong. During the same call, Billings discussed progress on a new 432-unit all-suite hotel and an entertainment complex there.
The idea that the UAE could be the new Macau for poker isn’t idle speculation. In May, longtime Wynn poker exec Ryan Beauregard announced that he would be transferring to the Emirates to oversee poker operations there. Beauregard had previously been in charge of the Macau room, so the plan appears to be a direct transfer of the same essential product from one venue to the other.
Like Macau, the UAE is a hub for ultra-wealthy business clientele. Billionaire executives are often drawn to poker by their egos and competitive spirit, while high-rolling professionals are drawn to those executives’ deep pockets. There is, in a sense, a voluntary exchange between the two groups: juicy games versus the opportunity to play against the best in the world for bragging rights. The only difference for Wynn is that, in the UAE, it will be the only game in town — for now, at least. That alone may have been reason enough to pack up in Macau and move things over.
Originally, the plan for Wynn Al Marjan Island was to open in March next year. Trump’s decision to attack Iran threw something of a wrench into those plans when Iran responded by retaliating against neighboring states, including the UAE. However, Billings told investors that those strikes have cooled off since the early days of the conflict. If the resort opens next September as now planned, the net impact will be only a modest six-month delay.
War Caused $300M in Costs, On Top of ‘Normal’ Overruns
Aside from the delay, disruptions resulting from the conflict will add $300 million to the project’s final price tag, Billings said. It’s now $600 million over budget, but the other half of that comes from what Billings described as “costs you expect on a project of this scale and duration.”
Of course, the six-month delay and $600 million overrun are contingent on the conflict winding down soon, which is no sure thing. Consensus by prediction bettors on Kalshi is that there is only a 50/50 chance that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by the end of the year. Iran closed the Strait early in the conflict, and it has become the most popular proxy for the conflict itself on exchanges like Kalshi that prohibit direct trading on war.
Regarding the possibility of a prolonged conflict, Billings told investors that the direct disruptions to construction wouldn’t matter in comparison to the effects on global energy markets. That idea may not be as reassuring to investors as Billings had hoped.
Image Credit: Al Marjan Island via Wikimedia Commons (license)
