Poker Writer
In an under-the-radar move, prediction market provider Kalshi added parlays to its offerings on Monday night, coinciding with the start of the NFL’s Monday Night Football. Oddly, Kalshi did not make an official announcement about adding parlays, despite it being a milestone move.
Parlays traditionally produce the highest house return (known as hold) in sports betting. Whereas straight bets at normal -110 juice produce a hold south of 5%, parlay betting can produce holds around 30%. That’s because parlays compound the expectation of loss (or win, but the average bettor has a losing expectation).
Users were able to combine wagers for the two Monday Night Football games: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, and Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos. Parlay legs could not be combined between the two games, as the wager stacking was limited to within the same game. The parlay option then disappeared before kickoff, preventing in-game parlays.
Kalshi presented the odds, giving the user the option to accept or decline them. However, there appeared to be some debate as to whether the markets were peer-to-peer or not.
This is crazy! The new combo experience on @Kalshi lets you build your own market for the NFL games tonight. pic.twitter.com/7LLuIDwvLp
— Noah 💥 (@Nostroah) September 30, 2025
One response to the claim that it is peer-to-peer:
Peer to peer ( except your peer is a giant institutional market maker )
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Why Parlays are Hugely Important for Kalshi
With Kalshi adding football prediction markets for the first time this year, it has been posting record numbers.
After spreads and even player props went up on the site, the logical next step appeared to be parlays. While Kalshi has infringed upon the sports betting market share of FanDuel, DraftKings, and other traditional sportsbooks, it lags far behind those entities in the width and depth of its offerings.
Parlays represented a massive gap, with same-game parlays an especially huge part of the market left untouched by Kalshi. Those popular lottery-like wagers can allow users to win huge prizes while risking very little. However, sportsbook hold on these wagers is the greatest of any bet type.
Many misleading social media posts have led people to believe parlays existed on Kalshi before, but now the real thing has finally arrived.
Perhaps in response, stock for DraftKings and FanDuel parent company Flutter took major hits.
Kalshi adding parlays and expanding further into football is its most notable expansion to date. But, Kalshi has also expanded into other avenues such as poker, with the signing of prominent pro Daniel Negreanu as an ambassador.
