Managing Editor
Kalshi announced today that it is now serving customers “globally,” in tweet from CEO Tarek Mansour that also boasted of $300 million in new funding from a group of investment partners. The announcement comes hot on the heels of an even bigger reveal from the company’s chief rival, Polymarket, which is now one-third owned by the same company that operates the New York Stock Exchange.
The two companies are now on a collision course, as Polymarket’s U.S. entry is pending just as Kalshi enters international markets previously served only by Polymarket.
That said, Kalshi isn’t really global quite yet. Although it’s possible to log into the site from outside the U.S., the new user agreement uploaded on October 10 still has a lengthy list of restricted regions.
Forty-five countries are on the exclusion list, including much of the English-speaking world. Kalshi remains off-limits in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Those in Ireland and New Zealand seem to be eligible to test their predictive powers, however. Much of continental Europe now has access, as well, with a few exceptions.
The full list of excluded countries is found below.
Polymarket Users Speculate on Odds of a Ban
Although prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket now have the federal blessing of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, state authorities don’t see things the same way. Numerous states have issued cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, and will no doubt do the same with Polymarket once it returns.
Kalshi has fought back, and battles over the underlying jurisdictional questions are raging on in courts across the country.
In the meantime, some states might attempt to take a legislative path to outlawing the exchanges. Although many state legislatures have adjourned for the year, those that convene year-round still have time in 2025 to pass such a bill.
Opinions on the likelihood of that seem to vary widely. Collectively, traders on such exchanges have often done a pretty good job of setting odds on real-world events. However, Polymarket’s contracts on the prospect of a state ban have been extremely volatile in early trading.
This morning, just before Kalshi’s announcement, Polymarket listed the question: Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?
Through the first day’s trading, liquidity has been very small, and the nominal odds have ping-ponged back and forth between about 10% and 40%.
That hasn’t stopped Polymarket from promoting the contracts on Twitter, seeming perhaps to taunt state regulators as it prepares to launch its new exchange.
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will sports prediction markets be banned in the U.S. this year?https://t.co/99fUbY1tgx
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 10, 2025
Nobel Peace Prize Provokes Latest Insider Trading Suspicion
A recurring issue for the prediction markets has been that many contracts have seemingly been targeted by insiders ahead of their official resolution.
The selection of María Corina Machado as this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner is the latest example. Shares for her selection leaped from about 8 cents to 70 cents in a short span, about ten hours before the official announcement.
Previous events that likewise suggested potential insider trading include Taylor Swift’s engagement and Bad Bunny landing the Super Bowl halftime gig.
Currently, Polymarket is spinning the phenomenon as a positive, presenting it as “having the news before anyone else.”
However, regulated exchanges like Kalshi have policies against insider trading, though they’re difficult to enforce.
Which Countries Still Can’t Access Kalshi?
As of October 10, the following countries are on Kalshi’s restricted list:
- Afghanistan
- Algeria
- Angola
- Austalia
- Belarus
- Bolivia
- Bulgaria
- Burkina Faso
- Cameroon
- Canada
- Central African Republic
- Côte d’Ivoire
- Cuba
- Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Ethiopia
- France
- Haiti
- Iran
- Iraq
- Kenya
- Laos
- Lebanon
- Libya
- Mali
- Monaco
- Mozambique
- Myanmar
- Namibia
- Nicaragua
- Niger
- North Korea
- Poland
- Russia
- Singapore
- Somalia
- South Sudan
- Sudan
- Syria
- Taiwan
- Thailand
- Ukraine (occupied territories)
- United Kingdom
- Venezuela
- Yemen
- Zimbabwe
