Polymarket is a prediction market that has traditionally provided an unregulated, offshore alternative to Kalshi. Its international site uses cryptocurrency for payment processing and a decentralized “oracle” to resolve contracts.
It was forced to stop serving American customers in 2022 following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, since the inauguration of President Donald Trump in 2025, the CFTC has taken a more permissive stance toward prediction markets and has certified a Polymarket subsidiary for entry to the regulated US market. It remains to be seen to what extent the product resembles Polymarket’s main site vs. something more like Kalshi.
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts that each pay out $1 based on whether or not a real-world event takes place. For instance, if public consensus is that a given politician has a 70% chance of winning an election, Yes shares for that politician might trade at 70 cents, and No shares at 30 cents. The market operator, like Polymarket, takes a commission on trades. As of 2025, the CFTC has permitted US prediction markets to offer contracts on sporting events, making them a more widely-available alternative to sportsbooks.
Swifties learned overnight on Tuesday of their beloved pop idol’s engagement to her long-time boyfriend Travis Kelce, but at least one Polymarket user appears… Continue reading ‘Insider Trading’ on Polymarket Foretold Taylor Swift’s Engagement
Time Magazine is upping the ante this year with its annual “Person of the Year” award. Among the top contenders… Continue reading The Pope vs. AI: Who Will Be Named Time Magazine’s Person Of The Year?
Yesterday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced its staff had issued no-action letters to two predictions trading companies seeking to enter the US… Continue reading CFTC Clears Two More Predictions Exchanges to Serve US Customers Without Federal Interference
California Governor Gavin Newsom currently looks like Democrats’ best hope to win the next presidential election, and predictions market bettors don’t seem… Continue reading Newsom’s Presidential Odds Rising Despite Potential Tribal Casino Scandal
Optimism is rising that an unpopular change to taxes on gambling winnings will be reversed before it takes effect, following… Continue reading House Ways & Means Committee Chair Promises Nevadans That Gambling Tax Deductions Cap Will Be Repealed
Predictions markets think there’s a better than even chance that federal lawmakers will repeal the wildly unpopular changes made to… Continue reading Kalshi and Polymarket Offer Contracts on Repeal of Gambling Tax Changes in Big Beautiful Bill
Polymarket will soon be serving US customers again after a three-year absence, thanks to its acquisition of a smaller exchange and… Continue reading Polymarket Will Return to the US Soon—What That Means for Predictions Market Speculators
The two biggest predictions markets can’t agree on whether Elon Musk’s America Party officially exists yet or not. Since his falling out… Continue reading Polymarket Says Elon Musk Has Already Formed His ‘America Party,’ But Kalshi Contracts Still Trading at 60%
Iran’s state-owned Bank Sepah is offline following a cyber-attack, but Polymarket users are divided on whether to treat it as… Continue reading Iranian State Bank Hack—Polymarket Users Debate Definition of ‘Major’ Cyberattack
Traders betting on the probability of a new Iran-US nuclear deal revised their estimates sharply downward after Israel launched a… Continue reading Predictions Bettors React to Israeli Strikes as Kalshi Rolls Out New Contract on US-Iran Nuclear Deal
