Disappointing Fourth of July Numbers May Keep This Year’s WSOP Main Event From Setting a Record

Barring a huge number of late registrations on Day 2, this year’s World Series of Poker Main Event will be slightly smaller than last year’s, but the reason may be different from the expected one. Three of the four starting flights produced entries similar to or better than the 2024 fields. Only Day 1C came up short, suggesting that Fourth of July plans may have kept some players from the tables.

Many in the poker community predicted low attendance by foreign players at this year’s series. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and aggressive approach to foreign policy have prompted calls for an international boycott of US tourism. However, flights to Las Vegas and casino GGR are only down by single-digit percentages year-over-year. It was unclear coming into the series whether that effect would outweigh its overall growth.

Common bellwethers, such as the Colossus, Millionaire Maker, Monster Stack, Mini Main Event, and Pot-Limit Omaha Championship, all saw year-over-year increases in attendance. However, the four starting flights for the Main Event produced only 8,694 entries, compared to 9,288 last year. If the final tally comes up short, it will be the first year since 2022 that doesn’t set a record.

Granted, Day 2 late registration is still open. However, fewer than 1,000 players typically choose that option, and this Main Event would need 1,419 to keep the record-setting streak alive.

Whatever happens, it will already be the third-largest Main Event in history, losing out only to 2023 and 2024. However, if other events in the series performed better than 2024, it still raises the question of why the Main Event would have had a down year. Maybe it’s because, compared to other WSOP events, the Main Event relies more heavily on international visitors. However, the flight-by-flight numbers suggest that the Fourth of July may have been a factor.

Does it Matter Where the Fourth of July Falls?

This year’s first flight, Day 1A, beat 2024’s by eight entries, representing a difference of less than 1%. However, Day 1B came in at 1,096 entries, a much more significant increase of 32% year-over-year.

The 2024 Day 1B was the smallest flight of that year’s series and also fell on the Fourth of July. It was the same story in 2023, when Day 1B was held on July 4 and was the smallest flight of the tournament. (In 2022, 1A and 1B saw a virtually identical number of entries).

That lends some credit to the idea that some US players might not have wanted to spend their Independence Day playing poker. Moreover, field sizes are traditionally much bigger for the later flights than the earlier ones. Thus, having the Fourth of July fall later in the starting flights might cause a greater disruption.

There has only been one other year in which July 4 was the third flight. That was in 2018, which was also the first year that July 4 fell during the event at all. Up until 2017, the traditional starting date for the Main Event was between July 5 and July 8.

Looking at the years just before and after 2018, there’s no indication that having the final flight on July 4 disrupted things in that case. Growth in attendance was about 9% for the event as a whole and 7% for the third flight, both in keeping with other events of that period.

And yet, it’s hard to look at these numbers and avoid the suspicion that players were avoiding Flight 1C this year, choosing to play 1B instead or skip the event entirely.